Still making it after all these years: If there were a “word cloud” for the current economic debate two words would emerge: “tariffs” and “manufacturing”.
One school of thought holds that high tariffs would allow the United States to recapture what many feel is its former manufacturing glory with its high paying, stable jobs. Other’s feel that doing so is either impossible or ill-advised. Economist Brian Wesbury offers a cogent one-page analysis of the real status of manufacturing that shows the US is still a manufacturing powerhouse but is a very different way than some would want or is even possible.
How likely is a return to a time when nearly 40% of the country worked in manufacturing? That’s a matter of opinion. If you’d like that opinion to be more informed, take a moment to learn why Mr. Wesbury says .” “No, America Didn’t Stop Making Things. Manufacturing in America didn’t die-it evolved “
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Better, but slow in the second half of 2025: say ITR Economics’ Brian Beaulieu and he unpacks some recent GDP and jobs data….along with some advice for your kids. Check out his latest FedWatch.
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Looking Backward and Forward: Economic metrics are forward looking (leading) and backward looking (lagging)…and currently they’re telling different stories.
Looking backward: economist Brian Wesbury shared a solid employment report for April. Whether this strength is due the new administration’s policies on tariffs etc. or strong coattails of the Biden administration’s economy remains to be seen. In fairness, Trump’s decisions are so recent that any correlation of actions and results should await the tests of time and perspective.
Looking forward: Consumer confidence is at a 40-year low. Will that lack of confidence impact business and consumer decision making, leading to what many think was an already overdue recession? That remains to be seen, but if you’d like a gauge on the prevailing level of uncertainty, check out the recently updated Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices for Global, US, UK, Japan, China, and Trade. The US Uncertainty Index through May 1 is shown below.
