Note: I usually position the economic articles towards the end of the newsletter. But the story grabbing many executives’ attention this week was the debate as to whether we’re in a recession…or not, so I decided to lead with it. As usual, my favorite economists have some data backed wisdom to share in this regard.
Still no Recession: Economist Brian Wesbury’s offers a valuable 7-minute video on how economists really determine whether we’re in recession (and it’s not the “2 consecutive quarters of real GDP decline” usually cited in the business media). Dr. Wesbury offers a fine analysis of what’ a recession is, and is not, in his latest Wesbury 101 video “Politics Makes People Stupid” Follow this up with his one page analysis of what he thinks 1st and 2nd read GDP will actually turn out to be when the final adjusted numbers are in, which underpins his thesis that it’s “Still No Recession”
Inflation: Not the Most Important Number: The recent 9.1 % Inflation rate is grabbing the headlines as a precursor to recession but Brian Beaulieu of ITR Economics counters that “in our opinion, people who think the inflation rate will put the economy into a recession are wrong. It isn’t inflation that could push us into a recession…”Find out what he thinks might in his short blog post 9.1% is Not the Most Important Number.”
How to get ahead of the Recession: Vistage Research presents a 60 minute Peak Performer webinar“ Recessions Red Lights Flashing: How to Get Ahead of the Curve” with Dr. Adrian Cronje. You can also download the slides. (It’s had over 5,000 views from our membership. This webinar is available to non-members.)
