“Trouble with the Curve”: The increase in interest rates since the pandemic and the fear of recession has put the importance of the yield curve front and center regarding its importance in forecasting an economic downturn. Economist Brian Wesbury offers a fine one page tutorial on this important concept in his weekly “Three on Thursday” blog: “State of the US Yield Curve.”
The Long and Short of It: In his March 29 edition of Fedwatch, ITR Economics Brian Beaulieu sees a sluggish real economy for the 2024 (but turning upward in 2025) and hope for both short and long rates.
Bringing it Home: It’s easy for many small to midsize businesses to focus on the US Economy, but we are interconnected in important way. ITR’s Taylor St. German gives a high-level recap of the US versus the rest of the world. If you’re in manufacturing, Mr. St. Germain’s comments on manufacturing reshoring to the US and impact on manufacturing construction are particularly interesting.
