A Present from the Fed: This past week saw remarkable stock market gains as the Federal Reserve backed off rate hikes. ITR’s Brian Beaulieu in his latest Fedwatch video explores this “Christmas present from the Fed” but cautions that some important sectors are not out of woods and that the risk of recession in those sectors is still very much with us.
The Herb Stein Rule: Herbert Stein was President Nixon’s economic advisor (and father of actor Ben Stein). He once remarked that “If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.’ ITR’s Taylor St. Germain’s recent video on the US employment picture echoes this truth. He reminds us that employment is a lagging, not leading indicator, and that while we had record high employment results in November the rate of employment growth, while still positive is slowing. He advises that those who hoped a recession would turn the labor market back to a “buyer’s market” from a “seller’s market” are likely to be disappointed. If you’re doing workforce planning, I strongly recommend his summary of the “US Private Sector Employment.”
Retail Reality: Dr. Brian Wesbury in his analysis of November Retail Sales states that “retail sales are now at record highs” but when adjusted for inflation, a worrying trend emerges. Check out his analysis of November Retail Sales.
