Who’s Afraid of The US Economy? Over the past year, many have been warning of a recession, but it never seems to come. Many economists and businesspeople have found forecasting the trend of the US economy to a very frustrating exercise of late. This graphic from Visual Capitalist “What’s Next for the US Economy?’ offers a recap of how various parties (Fed, consumers, economists et al) assess the probability of a recession.
The Four Horsemen of the Recession: ITR’s Taylor St. Germain explores what he feels are the four drivers creating a mild (compared to 2008) recession: savings, exports, corporate bond yields and corporate profits. Also, check out this week’s Fed Watch with ITR’s Brian Beaulieu.
A Dollar Dissertation: In a recent edition of Dr. Brian Wesbury’s “Three on Thursday” he explores the anxiety of many about the future of the dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency. He writes “In an era of inflation and large deficits, there are persistent rumors circulating that the dollar is at risk of losing its reserve currency status. These rumors are stoked by the desire of China (and others) to see this happen. We think these fears are vastly overblown.” If you’ve been worried about the dollar and US pre-eminence, Dr. Wesbury’s one page dollar “dissertation” is worth your time. Check out his High Frequency Data Tracker for the week.
