Premature Delivery: The folks at ITR Economics had long forecasted a recession (nothing like 2008) during 2025. As mentioned a few weeks ago, the actions of the Fed have caused them to move that forecast forward into 2024. ITR’s Lauren Saidel-Baker reminds us that forewarned is forearmed and a premature delivery of a recession offers not only peril but promise. Check out her ITR podcast: “Updated Expectations.”
Payroll and Housing: If there’s a recession coming, you wouldn’t know it from the December employment report. The 223,000 increase in non-farm payrolls handily beat the consensus of 203,000. But economist Brian Wesbury thinks there are issues lurking beneath the surface. Check out his one page analysis of the December Employment report. Check out his Housing Outlook for 2023 as well. Dr. Wesbury’s weekly High Frequency Data Tracker can be found here.