Dr. Alan Lichtman
Professor of History, American University
Note: As with last week’s issue, between now and November 5, I will be sharing articles that I hope will be of interest to any C-Level executive about the election, and I do so without any intention to support any party or candidate but to share some aspects of the race that I hope you will find informative or at least entertaining regardless of party or preferences.
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In an election year it’s difficult to get through the day without hearing about a new poll indicating who’s ahead in the presidential race and this year. This year we have a very close race and if you rely on the polls, picking a winner seems about like flipping a coin.
However, polls are not the only prediction tool available. One presidential historian has taken a different approach. He doesn’t look at polls, he relies on a very different methodology (one that might applicable to your business). Professor Alan Lichtman of American University has made the right call in every election, regardless of party, since 1984 with the except of the 2000 George W. Bush/Al Gore squeaker.
Dr. Lichtman looks at what he calls “keys,” 13 of them to be exact, with a minimum of 8 being required to call a winner. He explains that “The keys are not polls that reflect personality of a candidate or a policy position, but a list of conditions about pertaining to social unrest, scandal, incumbency, the economy, and others. The Keys are statements that favor the reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.”
A recent two-minute CNN interview shares his prediction for this cycle. I also suggest this one page executive summary of Professor Lichtman’s model from CNBC that offers more details about each of the keys.
Henry Ford hated polls and surveys. He once said that if he polled people about cars, they would say they wanted a faster horse. Are there aspects of this method that could help you predict your business outcomes better than customer surveys or polls?
